It’s Election Day, and we’re doing a Very Special Episode of RandomThoughts! to celebrate. Refresh the page often throughout the day and night to get the latest on what we’re thinking about. We’ll think about election happenings, election predictions, election results and election everything. Heck, there may be even non-election stuff here. SouthsideCentral is also very active on Twitter today. You can check out our Twitter feed here and feel free to follow us.
ElectionThoughts! on that famous Big Board, please.
- This year’s 5th District congressional race has been horribly boring in the last 6 weeks. Although challenger Lawrence Gaughan is a nice guy and really believes in his stands on the issues, his campaign was doomed by a lack of financing.. Robert Hurt continues to run a well-oiled campaign machine and will easily deflect his Democratic challenger just like he did in 2012. Whatever happened to John Douglass anyway? Anyway, we could go ahead and project the race now but we’ll wait until the polls close. PREDICTION: Hurt 65%, Gaughan 35%
- The US Senate race has gotten more interesting in the past six weeks, but Mark Warner seems to be cruising to a comfortable victory. Ed Gillespie never seemed to get over the hump in the race, and Warner’s power of likeability has deflected almost every criticism thrown at him. Although I think Gillespie will beat him in the Southside region, Northern Virginia will obliterate Southside’s vote power as usual. PREDICTION: Warner 54%, Gillespie 45%, Sarvis 1%
- Normally Clerk of Court races are drier than the desert. The special election for Halifax County got a little interesting in the last week as some narrow-minded people tried to inject gay marriage into the race. Yeah, I’m serious. Acting Clerk of Court Cathy Cosby has plenty of experience, but god forbid that she is authorized to perform marriages and she married a gay couple. Yep, you guessed it. Some local religious folks decided to be horrified about that. Her challenger, Donnie Amos, issued a statement that he would not get certified to perform marriages. He’ll sadly pick up some votes for that, but nowhere close to make this race competitive. PREDICTION: Cosby 62%, Amos 38%.
- 5:20 PM – I haven’t mentioned the municipal races in the towns of Virgilina & Halifax because every person is running unopposed. How boring.
- I’m watching the Martinsville City Council race. Gene Teague should win reelection and they’ll vote one new person on as well.
- 10:20 PM – I came pretty close on the Hurt/Gaughan race. It ended up Hurt 61%, Gaughan 36%.
No love for the constitutional amendment question?
Rule #72 of election analysis: Anything that says “veterans” will always pass.
I can’t remember a constitutional amendment in Virginia that hasn’t passed. The marijuana people should get one out there. It might pass just because people dislike saying no.
I think that you are spot on for CD 5 but I believe that Warner will have a wider margin.
I was thinking something like 58-40-2 depending on rounding.
It looks like Bruce and the two of us were probably all too optimistic in favor of Warner. I think it’s looking like he’s going to win, but he may do so by 4 points at most. Republicans should probably kick themselves for not spending money in this state.
Great prediction Josh! 🙂
How about 1/2 a point? While our much-respected former governor was sure to win again, the close vote means we may have a governor named Gellispie. Lee, you are correct, the Republicans are kicking themselves right now – but just for Virginia. Now they control congress.
One thing of note: there were blacks and women running as Republicans who won tonight. I call this Reconstruction II.
The glass ceiling has been broken and I hope more women will now run for public office in all levels: local, state and national.
If Gillespie can wait one more year than for Governor, he could probably have Kaine’s Senate seat if the midterm election he will face in 2018 has demographics like this one. That’s all a matter of whether he’d prefer to govern or legislate.
Pete Snyder may have something to say about this.
There are a few folks who may challenge, but Gillespie just delivered a very impressive performance with no national support at any stage.
Gillespie became the front runner of both parties for governor in 2017 tonight. Pete Snyder would be GOP front runner for Lt. Gov. That’s a strong ticket.
It seems that Gillespie wants to be in Washington, not Richmond, so I’m not sure whether the talk about 2017 is really on to something. And there are whispers that Paul Trible is eyeing the governor’s mansion. Look out for him in 2017. That’s where my money (if I had any) would be.
agree