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5th District Republican Primary – Final Thoughts.

So that happened. It’s over, yet we’ve only just begun. Final (?) thoughts coming up…

  • BAM! I was right on pretty much every prediction. With the exception of one local race (looking at you, Mike Newman!), SouthsideCentral is the place to come for your best political commentary. We attempt to infuse objectivity with a dose of accuracy, yet still keep it entertaining. SouthsideCentral is just not all about politics though and we hope you keep visiting the site. We’re only as good as our readers think we are. Thank you for visiting often. Of now that the shameless promotion and humility is taken care of, back to your regularly scheduled random thoughts.
  • Surprises of the night: Robert Hurt finishing 2nd in Albemarle County over 3rd place Mike McPadden, Laurence Verga only getting 802 total votes, Ken Boyd’s 34 total votes in Campbell County, and Robert Hurt’s 48.4% overall total.
  • Disappointment of the night: Mike McPadden’s final total of 9.7%. He’s a damned good man who’s got the principles to go far in politics (and hey, “you people”, going far in politics isn’t a bad thing if you’re good). I’m glad to have met Mike McPadden during this campaign and am proud to consider Mike McPadden a friend. I’ll gladly support McPadden in any of his future endeavors.
  • I was quite honestly surprised with Robert Hurt as his victory celebration today. I’d heard the various complaints that he wasn’t a good speaker and how he wasn’t charismatic. As I said earlier tonight, “Whoever said that Robert Hurt isn’t a good speaker is full of horsecrap.” Perhaps it’s the pressure of the primary behind him, or the drudgery of saying the same thing over and over at the numerous forums, but Hurt knocked it out of the park tonight.
  • Numerous people asked me how I thought Jeff Clark’s candidacy will affect the general election. As of now, I predict that Clark will draw the far-right fringe of the teaparty crowd, and that’s about all. Clark will get at most 4% of the general election vote and should be a non-factor.
  • The Register & Bee’s Catherine Amos said “Danville Tea Party leader Nigel Coleman says they’ll support Robert Hurt”. That’s a logical step for any group that opposes Tom Perriello. Unfortunately, a few Usual Suspects are starting to yell that the Danville teaparty has “sold out”. That’s ridiculous yet not surprising.
  • As I’ve said before, what in the hell happened to Laurence Verga’s campaign? He went from possible contender down to 2.3% of the vote. Unbelievable.
  • After the horrible final three weeks of Feda Morton’s campaign, she finished with 4.6% of the vote. Nice call, Bearing Drift. I’m available if you want to send “Agricola” back to the farm.
  • Tonight, “Angry Man” Jim McKelvey is sending mixed signals. He’s saying “I will not abandon all those who shared their hopes and ideals with me during the campaign.” paired with “We, as conservatives, must be unified to defeat Tom Perriello this November.” If he throws his support behind Robert Hurt, Jeff Clark becomes a total non-factor. Anyway, I’m betting that there’s a used bus for sale tomorrow morning. Perhaps Mark Lloyd will be watching Craigslist.
  • There are going to be some “republicans” that won’t support Robert Hurt. They’re quite foolish.
  • Smart political strategy, smart campaign workers & money wins elections. That’s the bottom line, like it or not. Teaparty-like shouting & outrage are useless in this area.
  • First prediction on the general election vote percentage: Hurt 48%, Perriello 48% Clark 4%. If McKelvey throws his support behind Hurt, it becomes Hurt 49+%, Perriello 49+%, Clark <2%.
  • First OddsMakers on the general election winner: Hurt 50%, Perriello 50%, Clark 0%. Yep, it’s a fresh start and a toss-up right now.

The election is over. The election begins now. You know there’s more to come here at SouthsideCentral… thanks for visiting often!

49 comments to 5th District Republican Primary – Final Thoughts.

  • Mary Mitchell

    Thanks again for a great overview. I HOPE you are correct about Jeff Clark’s independent bid being a non issue in the end. I am not sure and really REALLY hope you are correct!

  • Bruce, were you drunk in celebration last night? That’s the only excuse for you thinking that Robert Hurt is a good public speaker. OR you got him and Hawkins confused! 🙂 Hawkins was the one who hit it out of the park!

    Hurt gave a speech written by a 5th grader who looked up “Founding Fathers” and “Constitution” on wikipedia. Maybe it’s the difference between someone who takes conservative politics seriously (me) and someone who’s already dyed in the wool for Hurt (you) but I was really, really underwhelmed. He was saying all the right things but it wasn’t hitting the right notes for me.

    Specifically, if you look at other conservative Republicans who manage to pick up the support of the insurgent anti-Washington Tea Party movement they will talk about the need not only to clean up Washington and defeat the Democrat Party, but the need to clean up the Republican Party. Pelosi and Perriello are not the only problems with our country right now. I want a little bit from our new Republican nominee about the mistakes he thinks the GOP needs to make amends for.

    I think it was wrong for Tea Parties to endorse in the GOP primary and I think it’s wrong for Nigel to say the Danville group will be backing Hurt. Their membership is free to do whatever they want and something tells me Nigel didn’t really check in with his members before making that statement.

    I’m still on the fence in the general after last night. I want to see more from Hurt and will be watching the campaign unfold!

  • kelley in virginia

    I have lost countless primaries/conventions over the years. For those of you who worked hard yesterday & feel defeated today, remember this: you are NOT defeated until the last vote is counted on Nov. 2. this is all about beating Perriello. We can do it.

  • notnotandysere

    Your predictions were clearly bad in the past and you should be complimenting Hurt today not still drinking the Kool Aide. Clearly the poll that was done by the Danville TEAS that Hurt won meant something and just because a few of the members did not go along with the poll of the membership, the majority ruled. Hurt getting over 80% in Danville and Pittsylvania and doing very well in Henry and Martinsville showed that. Winning by almost 2-1 over Mad Man McKelvey is a solid speaking out of the people of the district. He is building a team,not tearing down one which is what you want him to do. As the third most conservative State Senator in Virginia, he will, if you and others will forget the campaign rhetoric, look at the facts, and get behind him, beat Perriello. Now we all need to look forward, not back. Doing otherwise is called aiding and abetting Perriello.

  • Will White

    NotAndysere Im very much on the fence myself.Hurt has ALOT of work to do to get me on board.Just getting rid of Perriello is not enough.We need a rep we can be proud of im not sure Hurt is that type candidate.I want Perriello gone as bad as anybody but Hurt will have a very hard time bringing everyone together im not sure it can be done.

  • kelley in virginia

    Will, since last night, there has been much fence mending.

    some have come out & endorsed quickly. Some will wait a few days.

    Go to Perriello’s website if you really want to get PO’d. He makes it sound as if the Republicans are a blight upon the earth.

    turn on MSNBC & listen to Olbermann, Maddow & Matthews if you want to renew your commitment to beat Pelosi at her own game. and dont’ forget: among Perriello’s other horrible anti-capitalist votes, he also voted for Pelosi for Speaker. That should be enough right there to defeat him.

  • Aaron

    Hurt won, not a surprise there…

    I think you are correct in noting that solid campaign managers make a HUGE difference. Verga had some terrible campaign management. His campaign failed in large part due to the failed leadership of Billy Hay. McPadden suffered from the same problem. McKelvey paid good managers (Semica and O’Connor) and got good results. To all those who want to run in the future HIRE MANAGERS WITH EXPERIENCE! A first time manager will get you no where.

    I doubt McKelvey will endorse Hurt…ever.

  • Will White

    Kelley Im sure alot of people will get behind Hurt now but Hurt has not given me any reason to vote for him.Im not convinced Hurt is any better than Perriello.Kelley you do realize some people will never get behind Hurt don’t you ?

  • Will White

    Aaron if McKelvey doesn’t endorse Hurt I will respect him for standing up for what he believes in.I supported McPadden but if McKelvey had won I would have been behind him today.

  • kelley in virginia

    Well, Will, Neither I nor Robert Hurt can force people to do anything. Could I suggest to these people that Perriello & Pelosi are part of the faction in our country that is trying to bring America down? Yes, & I can cite his votes as proof of that.

  • kelley in virginia

    and I would have been behind McP or McK. Beating Perriello is critical.

  • Will White

    Kelley what has Hurt done to show me he should get my support ? Please don’t say we must get rid of Perriello thats a reason to vote against Perriello but it isn’t a reason to vote for Hurt.

  • kelley in virginia

    Will, I don’t mind re-hashing all of RH’s positives here or anywhere else. If you are a social conservative, RH has an A+ rating. same with 2d amendment. same with small business group. He voted to cut the states budget to bare bones this year & if you want to hear state agencies squeal, call your Commonwealth’s atty’s office, school board, sheriff’s office, clerk’s office.

    if you are concerned about whether he knows his constitution, I suggest that he knows more about it than most since he has voted on parts of it & practiced parts of it.

    Will, Sen Hurt wants your vote. schedule a phone conversation with him or meet him in person. Chatham office: 434 432-4600.

  • Will White

    Kelley what Im worried about the most is the fact that Hurt has shown in the past he couldn’t stand up to the Democrats if he couldn’t stand up to Warner how do we expect him to stand up to Obama and Pelosi ?

  • Will White

    Kelley if Hurt wants my vote I will let him contact me.

  • kelley in virginia

    1st: call his office to find out when he will be in your area.
    2d: call your delegate or senator (if they were in the General Assembly at the time of the vote that you don’t like) & find out what was going on.

    you said on another website that you had joined the Jeff Clark “let’s re-elect Pelosi/Perriello” team this a.m.

    this will be my last comment to a concern troll.

  • Will White

    Kelley thats the way to bring people to Hurt just piss people off.

  • notnotandysere,

    I’ve actually made really solid predictions, including in the 2009 races. And in fact I was right last night. I never predicted that Hurt would be defeated. I did mention a race in South Carolina where I was right, Bob Inglis is heading into a runoff and will be defeated. Maybe you should actually follow what I’ve said?

    Can you give me a reason to get behind Hurt that isn’t dependent on trashing Perriello?

  • Ace

    I supported Mike McPadden, he was the only real politian that believes it is “We the People”!

    I agree with SC, what is the world coming too!

  • notnotandysere

    Reasons to support Hurt.

    1. Ranked #3 most conservative Senator in Virginia. Only Cuccinelli and Obenchain more conservative.
    2. Voted against state budget last three years because it depended too much on fee increases and other gimmicks
    3. Rated A by NRA
    4. Rated 100% by Family Foundation
    5. Rated 100% by NFIB
    6. Rated 100% by Farm Bureau
    7. People like Kurt Fiegel who have done a real look at his record tell you he is conservative.
    8. Brother first reporter kicked off Obama press plane for writing article they didn’t like.
    CAn give you more as you need them.

  • Notnotandysere, #fail. I’ve said many times I don’t want a politician who just is just able to check off boxes about this and that group supporting them.

  • kelley in virginia

    NAS: he didn’t get those 100% rankings by gun group, family group, small business group without having the votes to back it up. can I cite all 3,000 votes? no.

    but thanks for asking these questions, NAS, because you are making better advocates of us. we all need a little nudge every now & then.

    As much as I think of RH, its his brother I really want to meet: the badge of honor to be the 1st reporter thrown off Bambi’s plane for writing a disparaging article!!! wow.

  • It’s easy to be a follower and just vote the way groups tell you to vote. I want to know what Hurt has done as a leader. And not just in the last few months when he started running for Congress.

  • Will White

    Hurt says he wants to create jobs but since he has been in office the unemployment rate in his district has become one of the highest in the state.

  • notnotandysere


    The numbers are indicators of a long solid Conservative voting record. They are much better than words backed up by no history. If you won’t accept those ratings from strong conservative groups who have watched him for ten years the nothing will convince you.


    You clearly had little effect in your home county of Charlotte to get people to support a good man Mike McPadden and your continuing attacks won’t work either. Looks like Tucker Watkins did pretty well in his precinct for Robert Hurt. You got 9% and he got 78%. And we should pay attention to you ?

  • Will White

    Hi Tucker, Hurt won the battle but the war is in November lets see how well Hurt does against Clark and Perriello. If I can get 9% support for Clark then Hurt is done and so are you.

  • Aaron


    What did any of the other candidates do as a leader?

  • Samuel Gilleran

    “If I can get 9% support for Clark then Hurt is done and so are you.”

    But you can’t, because:
    1) many of those 9% will consolidate to Hurt and
    2) there will be much higher turnout when we’re talking about a general election instead of a primary, including independents and moderates who would never dream of voting for a far-right candidate.

    Since this seems to be the word of the thread: FAIL.

  • Will White

    It will be alot more people voting in the general election and if Clark gets some real endorsements he might be able to get 9% without much of a problem. Time will tell.I haven’t seen people jumping on the Hurt team very fast.Only Feda and Boyd have agreed to support Hurt so far and I was told not all of Feda’s support is on board yet.

  • Donna

    Will someone please tell me if Jeff Clark registered by June 8th with 3000 signatures. I doubt it. I think he is a wind bag. If you can prove he has registered then I will have more respect for him.

  • Aaron,

    None of the other candidates did anything as conservative leaders and had no voting record. A fact that was highly criticized about them here at Southside Central and elsewhere. Now that it’s Hurt against Perriello, shouldn’t Hurt be held to the same standard? Does he have a positive agenda or is he just running as the anti-Perriello?

  • kelley in virginia

    someone told me at lunch at the community table (so you know it was reliable!) that the State Board of Elections was “checking”. does that mean that he sent the petitions in? that’s all i’ve heard.

  • Aaron


    You ask what Hurt has done as a leader? I would argue that his service on various committees, appointment, and the introduction of positive legislation would be an example of leadership.

    For example, working with then Attorney General Bob McDonnell on the computer crimes task force and introducing a bill that provides for increased penalties for sex offenders who peddle in child porn.

    I would also suggest that he has been a strong supporter (dare i say leader) in pro-life causes throughout the state. For example, voting to prevent the funding of planned parenthood, voting to prevent forced or coercive abortion, voting to require Abortions clinics to get a license, and he voted to prohibit state funding of stem cell research.

    Recently, he introduced a small business jobs bill that was approved by the senate.

    While he may not be **perfect** he is a good conservative.

    Finally, hasn’t running as the anti candidate been fruitful for republicans lately. Gov. Christie, SCOTT BROWN ran as the ultimate candidate (running as the anti-health care vote). And didnt all the other 6 candidates run as “anti-establishment” candidates? You supported their anti movements, why not the anti-Perriello?

  • Will White

    Clark has filed.

  • Tarheel

    Non establishment candidates are good things, IMO.

    I would in many respects view Gov. Christie in NJ as a victory for conservative principles.

    Scott Brown is from Mass., outside of Mitt Romney (who is not from there) Scott brown is as conservative as you are going to get there. Period. He is opposed to many of the bloated government and tax and spend policies coming down the pike….granted, he is terrible on social issues…

    A Republican sitting in the chair most recently occupied by Teddy Kennedy is a major accomplishment.

  • VaPatriot

    Speaking of Jeff Clark, There is no history on Clark; he is the virtual “ghost” who suddenly appears on the internet when he decides to run for Congressman to represent thousands of 5th District residents. The only background anyone has given is that he is a Danville “businessman”.

    Well, what is his business? How long has he been in business? What is his record of success or failure in business? How many people does he employ? Who are his family members? What church does he attend? What college did he graduate from? Where does he live?

    We all know all of this for Hurt and the others who ran………..we know NOTHING about Jeff Clark!! He does not even have a website that I could find!

    I don’t want to make a decision on a candidate based solely on the apparent facts that he is a businessman and he apparently is a conservative!

  • Will White

    VaPatriot you can learn more about Jeff Clark at

  • Th. Paine

    Except that the site has no bio on Clark and hasn’t been updated since April. Try again.

  • VaPatriot

    I still say he is a “ghost”. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t put it past the socialists to have him set up as a “plant”, a fake Tea Party conservative, with the sole purpose of trying to siphon off votes for Hurt and direct them to Perriello! Yes, I think it is entirely possible that he is a Pelosi-Perriello pawn! We need some true investigative journalists (are there any left?) to check this guy out from top to bottom!

    We don’t want our precious 5th District seat stolen by a covert Pelosi-Perriello pawn!

  • Grammar Girl

    One thing certainly is clear from Clark’s website is that he was no english major. Nice . . .

  • kelley in virginia

    VaPatriot: maybe the people in Danville know more about Mr. Clark. Maybe he has worked for conservative causes for years. Maybe he has shown his conservative bona fides to those local to Danville.

    but your point is very well taken: either Pelosi/Perriello put Clark up to this or either its the best gift they’ve ever been given.

    Hurt will have to beat Perriello & Perriello’s second.

  • Will White

    Alot of people think that the reason some of the Republican candidates were in the race was Hurt had promised them something.

  • kelley in virginia

    Will, and alot of people want to know what Pelosi/Perriello promised you to keep dragging down Robert Hurt.

  • Will White

    Kelley if you think I have been tough on Hurt you should have seen how tough I have been on Perriello.If Hurt can’t take little old me being tough on him how in the hell is he going to stand up to Perriello and the Democrats ?

  • Republurker

    Try finding even an address for Clark’s campaign on his web site. Try doing a reverse phone look up for the phone number on his web site. It comes back to “unlisted.” Golly, that sounds like the kind of approachable, transparent candidate I’d be willing to support.

  • kelley in virginia

    money bomb for Robert Hurt on Rick Sincere, Bearing Drift & Virginia Virtucon.

    not to steal your traffic, Bruce.

  • Will White

    Kelley Hurt needs more than money he needs to learn how to tell the truth.

  • Grammar Girl

    I am so very sick of you Will. I have known Hurt 15+ years — how about you? There is not a more honest, thoughtful person out there. And, yes, I have been opposite him in court. He could tell me it was snowing in July and I would believe it. Just quit with your knee jerk dictated opinions. Your support of Clark tells us all what brains you have.

  • Will White

    Grammar Girl im glad you are so happy with a RINO like Hurt. I just wonder if you will still be happy with Hurt when Perriello wins this fall ? Grammar Girl why don’t you piss off as many people as you can that will really help Hurt.

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