Let’s get back into politics and see what’s been going on in the race for the Republican nomination for the 5th District House of Representatives fall election. We’ve done a few Food Chain!s before, but this is SC’s first straight-up update.
Starting at the bottom of our last Food Chain and working up, we’ll go over each candidate’s last five weeks of campaigning and related activities. Let’s go to the board!
- Jim McKelvey – McKelvey has became one of the tea party’s favorite candidates and now he’s got to convince the other likely voters that he’s the man to vote for. He’s got the money to make it to June 8th. In the past five weeks, McKelvey comes out UP.
- Feda Morton – Most people (including me) believed that Feda Morton’s campaign was dead in the water. Somehow, she’s continued a viable campaign despite a severe lack of money. Morton’s picked up endorsements from numerous sources. In the past five weeks, Morton comes out UP.
- Ron Ferrin – Ferrin hasn’t been heard from lately and time’s running out. In the past five weeks, Ferrin comes out DOWN.
- Laurence Verga – Verga started with a lot of potential but it seems like it’s falling apart for his campaign. That’s the wrong momentum at this stage of the game. In the past five weeks, Verga comes out DOWN.
- Ken Boyd – Around the Southside, Boyd’s been missing in action lately. In the past five weeks, Boyd comes out DOWN.
- Robert Hurt – Hurt’s got top-shelf strategists working for him, but I’m starting to wonder what the hell they’re thinking. It seems that the strategy is to continue to let Hurt take shots and not playing any defense. He’s not going to sit on the money that he has (is he?) but with the clock running out, when is he going to use it? In the past five weeks, Hurt comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.
- Mike McPadden – McPadden seems to be holding steady despite starting to get an increasing number of attacks. He seems to have the money to make it to the finish line, so let’s see how he uses it. In the past five weeks, McPadden comes out EVEN.
- A relatively quiet five weeks is yet another bizarre twist in this bizarre race. I find it hard to believe that any candidate is going to leave money on the table so I’m getting ready for advertising blitzes.
- The candidates that are lacking in money will get steamrolled during this predicted ad blitz.
- If somebody could run a real poll using real statistically valid methods, we’d finally be able to get some sense of order on the lower two-thirds of the field. It’s clear that Robert Hurt & Mike McPadden have a relatively strong amount of support, but Feda Morton & Jim McKelvey are likely starting to surge to some extent. A real poll could tell how the candidates are trending. Unfortunately, I’m betting that there won’t be a poll like this done before the primary.
- Straw polls are friggin’ useless, people. All they show is how many supporters that a specific candidate brought to one event. Faked polls are even more useless, because they’re going to knock down credibility.
- Who’s going to vote in the primary on June 8th? The tea party groups seem to think that they will control the election, but that’s not going to be the case if the impending ad blitz is effective. If the candidates are smart, they’ll focus their word of the people that are Republicans but don’t participate in the tea party movement. From what I’ve seen in the “grassroots” organizations, the challengers are very unlikely to change their mind from their choice that they have right now.
- We’ve also got to think of the crossover subterfuge vote potential because this primary election is open to all voters. With so many candidates in the race, this election could very well be won with 30% of the vote. If an organized Democratic effort gets out and votes for a candidate near the bottom of the Food Chain, hilarity could definitely ensue with the results.
Recap: In my objective opinion, there seems to be three tiers of candidates right now. Hurt & McPadden are on top, Morton & McKelvey are the middle tier and Verga, Boyd & Ferrin are trailing. “Money changes everything”, and that saying is probably going to come true when the polls close on June 8th.