How about some predictions of the future? Of course, I never get any of them wrong.
Hey lookie! We’ve got a special guest in the SouthsideCentral studios today… it’s Lee Smallwood. He’s going to take a shot at the OddsMakers board. This will be interesting…
Have a seat, Lee. Let’s see what’s on the Big Chalkboard today. (Of course if you’ve hit the LIKE button on SouthsideCentral’s Facebook page, you’ve already had a sneak preview of today’s board.)
Hoo boy. Here we go.
“The Danville Mall Sears will close for good in the next 12 months” – Lee, I’ll let you start off…
Lee: Mall ownership will do everything they can to keep Sears inside the mall while they recruit more stores. It is easier to fill a mall with every anchor position open than it is when a business like Sears leaves. That said, the company is pretty clearly closing locations and has both its Sears and KMart locations here in Danville when they likely only need one. The only reasons this gets the odds it does is because the entire company discontinue operations and because the mall ownership can’t be fond about the store’s abbreviated hours. If they can get the mall almost entirely occupied or can attract the attention of an anchor like Barnes & Noble, this could actually happen. 15% Although I think the Sears is clearly the one in this community to close as opposed to the more successful KMart on Riverside, I see a greater than five in six chance that Sears makes it at least one more year.
Bruce: The owners of the mall refused to issue a long term lease to the Sears store in Martinsville’s Liberty Fair Mall, but that was because they were planning to completely blow the mall up and change it into an open-air shopping center. Even then, it was a stupid move. Sears wanted to stay in Martinsville. You’re right about Sears holdings having rough times but I’m even more optimistic than you on their survival rate. 4% for me.
“Chances of a flood or other serious site-related problem happening at the new YMCA in the next ten years” – I’ll start this one.
Bruce: They’ve already had some problems during the construction process and it’s almost a lock that you’ll see orange cones somewhere there in the next 10 years. Add the close proximity to the river and it’s flood potential and hilarity will ensue. They could have built this is the old Harris Teeter location and gotten the same threat potential. Oh yes. This one gets a 91%.
Lee: Danville would have been significantly better off if the new YMCA had been built off of Memorial Drive instead of Riverside Drive. The site is better, and it would have allowed the city to connect the YMCA to the River District far more effectively than they will be able to now. If it hadn’t already happened, the disaster with the parking area that had to be re-imagined would certainly qualify here. I have doubts that Danville will flood significantly enough to flood the Y in the next ten years, but it could happen. I think it is outright likely that there will be issues either with additional parking or with using the marshy areas designated for outside activities. 70% I only put the odds this low because it is likely that the engineers and architects on the project have done as good a job as they can dealing with these issues. Otherwise, I might go as high as 90%.
“National Night Out will come to Pittsylvania County on the correct Late July/Early August date in 2015” – Your honor, counselor.
Lee: In 2013, Sheriff Mike Taylor moved National Night Out from August to April due to complaints about the weather. I don’t really have any serious complaints about Sheriff Taylor, but that was a rotten idea. First of all, there is a recognized alternate date for National Night Out in October that is only used in Texas for heat concerns. Second, the heat in Pittsylvania County most of the time just isn’t that extreme. It doesn’t keep Danville and neighboring jurisdictions from celebrating the event on the proper date. Sheriff Taylor and the unopposed for Commonwealth’s Attorney Bryan Haskins need to restore a bit of sanity to the event, remembering that it is National Night Out. It makes no sense for Pittsylvania County to celebrate alone in April. Find some arrangements that can be made in case of heat and move this event to when it belongs. The biggest problem with Pittsylvania County is that whether it is Tim Barber’s xenophobic remarks at the Chamber of Commerce, firing the economic development director, or choosing local-only inappropriate celebration dates for national events, Pittsylvania County is just simply out of step with the world around it. This needs to change. Unfortunately, this is reality and not wishful thinking. I’d say there is only a 20% chance of the event returning to the right date in 2015.
Bruce: Hey! Every time you go first, you say what I was thinking. I have a hard enough time getting press releases out of the Pittsylvania County Sheriff’s Office. With Pittsylvania County being so large in land area, I find it hard to believe that somebody from Cascade, Java or Hurt would make the trip for this event anyway. I feel that Pittsylvania County should hold NNO events in each quadrant of the county to get a bigger turnout. That won’t ever happen, either. Anyway, back to the original proposition. Although I’d love to throw the old GooseEgg on the board, I’ll be semi-nice and say 6%.
“Chances of a Steven Gould vs. Lee Vogler election someday” – I’ll start this final one.
Bruce: This one will probably happen and it won’t be for a City of Danville office. I’m seeing this matchup in a House of Delegates race when Danny Marshall retires. Danny Marshall is pretty much unbeatable until he quits the game. By then, Steven Gould will have continued his ascension in the local arena just as Lee Vogler has. Gould would also be the first real threat to swing this district’s House of Delegate seat back to the Democrats since Adam Tomer. That means lots of campaign money would flow into his candidacy and the race would probably spin way out of control like the Tomer/Marshall one did. As for Lee Vogler, he’s always looking to take the next step up the ladder. The only question is when (or if) Danny Marshall retires. If that’s 10+ years away, both Gould and Vogler may have already moved up in other ways. That’s why I’m holding my number down to 59%.
Lee: The chances of this are a lot smaller than I think it may appear. The biggest reason for this is that the single most likely place for a face off is the city council, and Mr. Gould would most logically run for office in the opposite set of elections as Mr. Vogler. Steven will be up for re-election to the school board in 2018 or could otherwise run for city council at that point. It would be odd for him to resign the school board post to run against Lee in 2016. There is also the fact that most local officials do not advance from one board to another. Sure, Alonzo Jones did this as I recall. It’s still an open question as to whether Mr. Gould would take that step. That leads us to the other offices it is foreseeable that these men could compete for. There are a few constitutional offices and the possibility of state legislative offices if both of these gentlemen live in the same district. The constitutional offices mostly get filled by people who rise up from their respective offices as employees of the system, and the state legislative offices do not frequently get contested around here. One thing I am not including here is a scenario where the two men face off in some kind of contest that is not decided by a popular vote of the citizens. My estimate does not include things like running for major, the two men both attempting to become the head of the same civic organization, or some local popularity poll run by a news site. 33% Yes, that’s right — there is a one in three chance of this happening.
All right… we’re done! I’d like to thank Lee Smallwood, our special guest for this OddsMakers article. He’s always welcome back at any time. Let’s take a look at the final board.
I win! Yes! Haha.
More coming up on SouthsideCentral!
Sears and Belk own their location in the Danville mall
That’s an interesting bit of information, but that could actually increase the chances of Sears closing in the long term. If they can market and sell the building, they might actually gain by closing the store and going down to just the KMart location on Riverside.
Lee vogler aint done nothing on the city council to make a name for himself to entitle him to work in Richmond. what has he done? he’s a wusssssssssssssss
Trevoe (or whatever your actual name is),
I’ll be glad to provide with a list of some things that have been proposed, accomplished or put in place in the short 24 months I’ve been in office.
1) Secured the Scenic Rivers Designation for the Dan River. Something I campaigned on and saw come to fruition a month after I took office. http://www.godanriver.com/news/danville/article_c3ddaed4-48d5-11e3-8fb4-0019bb30f31a.html
2) Proposed (and passed) a change to the city’s sign ordinance that allowed for advertising on certain properties, creating a new revenue stream for the city: http://www.newsadvance.com/go_dan_river/news/danville/article_26f8a968-8dd0-11e2-9f6c-001a4bcf6878.html
3) Proposed (and passed) a change to the city zoning laws that reduces a zoning appeal wait time from 12 months to 4 months, thus allowing some viable projects to stay in the pipeline, which helps creates jobs and revenue: http://www.godanriver.com/news/danville/article_4e977e52-2bbb-11e3-b4b9-0019bb30f31a.html
4) Have made multiple proposals in addressing blight in Danville:
http://www.newsadvance.com/go_dan_river/news/danville/blight-task-force-idea-fails-to-get-council-support/article_fce29ac8-ef39-11e2-a857-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm
http://www.godanriver.com/opinion/community_viewpoint/finding-a-way-forward-on-blight/article_c091c5d2-0ed5-11e4-8e6c-001a4bcf6878.html
5) Worked with our school system, nonprofits and local business leaders to lay the groundwork for a new education initiative:
http://www.godanriver.com/news/danville/article_2e4cedfc-6852-11e3-8473-0019bb30f31a.html?mode=jqm
6) Was a leading supporter of the “Ban the Box” initiative in Danville that was passed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtV1TrR6NA8
7) Shined a light on the lack of transparency in the School Board’s budget and in turn, the process has been changed:
http://starnewsource.com/2013/02/28/councilman-seeks-transparency-on-school-board-budget/
8) Introduced (and passed) a proposal that prevented a bus fare increase in Danville:
http://www.newsadvance.com/go_dan_river/news/danville/article_781b45ca-c2ec-11e2-b0c6-0019bb30f31a.html
Those are just a handful off the top of my head but if you’re truly interested in finding out “what has he done?”, I would be glad to share some more with you.
As far as me being a “wussssssssssss” ….you really got me there. I can only hope to be a great keyboard warrior like you one day. Thanks for keeping up with the news.
LV
Bazinga!
Game, Set, Match, Mr. Vogler.
whatever dude….you are a grain of sand on the beach as far as I am concerned. dust in the wind…
Dear Trevoe,
I am not sure exactly what you have done for Danville but if you feel any of the city council members do not deliver, I encourage you to run against them in the next election. Name calling is for little children and deserves to stay on the playground.
As for Lee, I am not sure of any city council member that seems to work harder than he does. Lee seems to be a very active and while I may not always agree with his plans or position, I always appreciate him working on our behalf to make the city better. He seems to be a sensible, cool head during many discussions and while he is not a strong leader yet, I say you give him a chance to become one. (I say this not because I think he needs defending but because I do not like name calling and this commentator has done this before.)
Even if you do not have time to run for city council, let the members know your thoughts/proposals. The more information and ideas they have, the better they can do to represent you.
Thank you Local Business Owner. I appreciate your sensible response.
I’m not challenging your position that Mr. Vogler seems to do the most, but I do think it important to mention that this may very well be because he does high profile things, particularly online. I appreciate that he does things that way, but I don’t want to discount things others may be doing that are not as visible online. In my book, he’s an asset to the city. That’s what matters.
Didn’t Ben Davenport sell the land on which the Y is being built?
Didn’t Karl Stauber, of the Danville Foundation, select Davenport’s land as the best site for the Y to be built?
Isn’t Ben Davenport on the Board of the Danville Foundation?
If so: What are the odds that this was an arm’s length transaction?
I think in fairness the land was donated, with the idea being that having the Y on what looks like a third or a quarter of the former Long Mill site would increase the value of the rest of it. I do think there appears to be a lot of entanglement between the boards of several entities in this area (Y, DRF, IDA), and that does sometimes look a bit unseemly. I’m not trying to get into that with what I said, though. I’m just saying it’s a shame it couldn’t have been worked out the other way. We wouldn’t have a Y that “faces the river”, but we’d have one that could easily be accessed from the River District. Planned improvements to the MLK bridge aside, I just don’t see a lot of pedestrian traffic going from work downtown across the river and then back to a dinner at Dellanno’s, Golden Leaf, or Jake’s. It’s a big missed opportunity.
Trevoe quoted the most depressing Kansas song of all time…. 🙁
Is there any other Kansas song? 😀
God Bless him….it was poetic. I’ve got nothing for it….
Kudos to Vogler and Gould for offering themselves for public service.
I hope the new Y is a smashing success and that it enjoys strong support from the local community. I agree with Lee Smallwood that the other side of the river would have probably been a better location. Hopefully, though, there will be development projects in the works that will make good use of that space so that there are two key institutions opposite each other, with views of the river and easy access to the rest of downtown. What I’ve read in the last few months about the new businesses in the area has been encouraging.